Wednesday, October 3, 2012

THE JRL NEWSLINK BLOG HAS MOVED ....

Thank you for your interest in Johnson's Russia List and its blog presence.

Please be aware that the JRL, at its new domain, www.russialist.org, is hosting a new newslink blog powered by wordpress, at http://russialist.org/wordpress/ .


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Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Ex-Finance Minister Kudrin, Economic Expert Gurvich on Pension Reform - Vedemosti

Alexei Kudrin file photo
[please note: the focus of the newslink blog is to convey content of external sources not republished on the JRL website, largely by quoting or annotating; it is not intended to comment upon the sources, nor to endorse or critique the content, but rather to convey information about what was expressed]

Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin and Yevsey Gurvich, authored a lengthy Vedemosti commentary on pension reform entitled "Break People of the Habit of Paternalistic Thinking," published April 11, 2012.

Kudrin and Gurvich argued that Russia is a failing to address what could be an unfolding crisis in the pension system, one that will have a broad budgetary and economic impact.  They called for an increase in the retirement age, linking retirement age to growing life expectancy.  The crux is if longer lifespans are accompanied by longer years of sufficiently good health, making possible a longer active working life.

Politically pensioners make up 40% of voters participating in elections, a percentage expected to rise.

Kudrin and Gurvich warn: "... sooner or later the government will have to make serious decisions regarding the pension system."

"The task is very large in scale -- the collapse of the entire budget system must be prevented."

But they say the problem is not addressed adequately:
Unfortunately, in Russia to this day, not only has a clear understanding of how we are to counter aging not been worked out, but a system-wide solution for this problem has not even been included in the list of priorities of economic policy. Preparation of an action plan would also be useful as a proving ground for polishing the general principles for conducting the reforms.
S&P estimates for a range of countries show that the aging of populations will require an increase by 7.5% of GDP over 40 years in state expenditures for pensions and health care.  But in Russia "the scale of the problem is even greater."

According to Kudrin and Gurvich:

- Russian pension expenditures are already "quite high," markedly higher than the OECD average

- Russian pension premiums cover less than half of the payouts, and financing from the budget is 2.5 times the European average

- preserving the system unchanged for another 50 or 60 years will result in a decline in the level of pensions as compared with wages

- the pension "correlation" (coefficient of replacement) is already not that high, and will drop by another half in the next 40 years, resulting in an even lower standard of living for pensioners

- on the one hand, simply throwing more money at the matter is problematic, because pension premiums would have to be increased by a point every year, impacting economic development; at the same time abandoning reform would "endanger the entire economy"

A Way Out?

Kudrin and Gurvich observe that some economists focus on the development of a savings-type pension system.  The idea is that "full prepayment" by savings would stave off a buildup of the "pension deficit."

But they suggest that a savings-type system does not protect against a decline in retiree living standards, because it could still involve a decline in what they call the "replacement coefficient."


Raising the Pension Age

The authors cite an economic study showing that "the only way to really solve the long-term problem of aging (and not simply to conceal it for the next five or 10 years) is to raise the pension age as length of life rises."

Kudrin and Gurvich argue that maintaining a constant correlation between labor activity and retirement:

- avoids raising pension premiums

- avoids a build-up in the pension system deficit

- avoids a reduction in the replacement coefficient (avoids reducing a decline in retiree standard of living)

Some countries already link retirement age to the general life span, such as Denmark.

Life Span vs. Working Life

Kudrin and Gurvich want to align retirement age with a longer working life: "In the first stage, we need to reach those ratios between length of work and receipt of a pension that would make a more acceptable level of pensions possible."

The authors cite a WHO study as indicating that a longer lifespan includes an increase in the healthy portion of that lifespan as well, by a similar ratio.  In other words, they argue that people living longer also have a longer active phase of life during which they can work longer.

"Based on state of health, the degree of ability to work, and anticipated life expectancy, a Russian citizen who will be 65 years old in 2030 will roughly correspond to a Russian citizen who is now age 60. In other words, the lines determining the onset of early old age and the state of being unable to work should be periodically adjusted similar to how the amount of the minimum subsistence standard or the size of the pension is revised taking inflation into account."

Stage 1

Kudrin and Gurvich want to bring the pension age for women to 59 or 60, and predict that it eventually could reach 62 by 2030.

"According to Rosstat data, the proportion of working women aged 55-59 years is consistently rising (it came to 36% in 2000, and 49% in 2010)."

And Rosstat is predicting that, by 2030 the life span of Russian men will rise by five years, the life span Russian women by 3.5 years.

Yet today "Russian women receive a pension for an average of 24.5 years -- substantially more than women who are residents of Germany, Canada, or the United States (20-21 years) and more overall than women who are citizens of the OECD countries (23.3 years)."

The authors indicate:

-  more than 90% of women live to 55 years of age

- if the pension age is raised to 62 by 2030, projections indicate the same percentage could live to pension age by that time, around 90%

Objections to Raising Retirement Age

Kudrin and Gurvich note objections to raising the pension age, including concerns about short life spans and small portions of the population living to retirement age, as well as difficulties in finding work when older.

They respond with the data about Russian women currently receiving pensions for longer periods than their counterparts in other countries.

Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin and Yevsey Gurvich, authored a Vedemosti commentary on pension reform entitled "Break People of the Habit of Paternalistic Thinking," published April 11, 2012.

Kudrin and Gurvich argued that Russia is a failing to address what could be an unfolding crisis in the pension system with broad budgetary and economic impact.  They called for an increase in the retirement age, linking retirement age to growing life expectancy.  The crux is longer lifespan being accompanied by longer stretches of sufficient health making possible an active working life.

Politically pensioners make up 40% of voters participating in elections, a percentage expected to rise.

Kudrin and Gurvich warn: "... sooner or later the government will have to make serious decisions regarding the pension system."

"The task is very large in scale -- the collapse of the entire budget system must be prevented."

But they say the problem is not addressed adequately:

"Unfortunately, in Russia to this day, not only has a clear understanding of how we are to counter aging not been worked out, but a system-wide solution for this problem has not even been included in the list of priorities of economic policy. Preparation of an action plan would also be useful as a proving ground for polishing the general principles for conducting the reforms."

S&P estimates for a range of countries show that population aging will require an increase by 7.5% of GDP over 40 years in state expenditures for pensions and health care.  But in Russia "the scale of the problem is even greater."

According to Kudrin and Gurvich:

- pension expenditures are already "quite high," markedly higher than the OECD average

- pension premiums cover less than half of the payouts, and financing from the budget is 2.5 times the European average

- preserving the system unchanged for another 50 or 60 years will result in a decline in the level of pensions as compared with wages

- the pension "correlation" (coefficient of replacement) is already not that high, and will drop by another half in the next 40 years, resulting in an even lower standard of living for pensioners

- on the one hand, simply throwing more money at the matter is problematic, because pension premiums would have to be increased by a point every year, impacting economic development; at the same time abandoning reform would "endanger the entire economy"

A Way Out?

Kudrin and Gurvich observe that some economists focus on the development of a savings-type pension system.  The idea is that "full prepayment" by savings would stave off a buildup of the "pension deficit."

But they suggest that a savings-type system does not protect against a decline in retiree living standards, because it could still involve a decline in what they call the "replacement coefficient."

Raising the Pension Age

The authors cite an economic study showing that "the only way to really solve the long-term problem of aging (and not simply to conceal it for the next five or 10 years) is to raise the pension age as length of life rises."

Kudrin and Gurvich argue that maintaining a constant correlation between labor activity and retirement:

- avoids raising pension premiums

- avoids a build-up in the pension system deficit

- avoids a reduction in the replacement coefficient (avoids reducing a decline in retiree standard of living)

Some countries already link retirement age to the general life span, such as Denmark.

Life Span vs. Working Life

Kudrin and Gurvich want to align retirement age with a longer working life: "In the first stage, we need to reach those ratios between length of work and receipt of a pension that would make a more acceptable level of pensions possible."

The authors cite a WHO study as indicating that a longer lifespan includes an increase in the healthy portion of that lifespan as well, by a similar ratio.  In other words, they argue that people living longer also have a longer active phase of life during which they can work longer.

"Based on state of health, the degree of ability to work, and anticipated life expectancy, a Russian citizen who will be 65 years old in 2030 will roughly correspond to a Russian citizen who is now age 60. In other words, the lines determining the onset of early old age and the state of being unable to work should be periodically adjusted similar to how the amount of the minimum subsistence standard or the size of the pension is revised taking inflation into account."

Stage 1

Kudrin and Gurvich want to bring the pension age for women to 59 or 60, and predict that it eventually could reach 62 by 2030.

"According to Rosstat data, the proportion of working women aged 55-59 years is consistently rising (it came to 36% in 2000, and 49% in 2010)."

And Rosstat is predicting that, by 2030 the life span of Russian men will rise by five years, the life span Russian women by 3.5 years.

Yet today "Russian women receive a pension for an average of 24.5 years -- substantially more than women who are residents of Germany, Canada, or the United States (20-21 years) and more overall than women who are citizens of the OECD countries (23.3 years)."

The authors indicate:

-  more than 90% of women live to 55 years of age

- if the pension age is raised to 62 by 2030, projections indicate the same percentage could live to pension age by that time, around 90%

Objections to Raising Retirement Age

Kudrin and Gurvich note objections to raising the pension age, including concerns about short life spans and small portions of the population living to retirement age, as well as difficulties in finding work when older.

They respond with the data about Russian women currently receiving pensions for longer periods than their counterparts in other countries.

Paternalistic Model vs. Balancing of Interests

Kudrin and Gurvich then express concern over how pensions are conceptualized, referring to a Soviet era paternalistic model under which citizens regard the state as the source of the pension, rather than the source being the citizens themselves paying into the system.

They note that, under a paternalistic model, a sense of the state's obligation is emphasized, but that they wish to focus more on a balancing of citizens' interests as taxpayers with their later interests as pensioners.
Citizens should firmly grasp the fact that they are the ones who finance pensions, education, and the health care system. Otherwise we will inevitably strangle production with higher taxes  and social fees and deprive it of prospects for development -- and then we will certainly be unable to count either on the dynamic growth in the economy that we are seeking or on receiving adequate pensions.
They caution that if the state does not curb obligations, at some point it might switch from one extreme to another: "Under the burden of excessive obligations, the state at some point will be forced to throw them off, retaining only the very minimum for itself -- one extreme will then turn into the other."

Kudrin and Gurvich also speak of the need for programs to balance other burdens created by a longer working life.  For example, they speak of an obligation of older women to babysit children, and suggest the creation of more preschool programs [apparently so that the older women can work for a wage and have wage-earners at the preschool program be paid to provide the care previously provided by the older women.]

[The overriding goal of the authors is to push for an overriding strategy to address the issues raised by pensions and the aging population.]

[no link is available to an English-language translation of the commentary]

CRACKDOWNS: SOCIOLOGISTS: SOCIETY WILL NO LONGER ACCEPT AUTHORITARIANISM IN THE NAME OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Kremlin and St. Basil's
In an April 17, 2012, article, Vedomosti reported on a Levada-Center opinion poll showing that 48% of respondents across multiple groups "support one simple demand to the president and the government ... people ought to be permitted to mind their own business with the authorities only making sure that no laws are broken." Vedemosti says that this view stands in contrast to the notion that authoritarianism should be tolerated for the sake of economic development.

Authoritarianism

According to the survey: "General public remains convinced that Russia needs a strong ruler on the one hand and that putting too much power in one individual is wrong on the other."

The following percentages supported what Vedemosti called authoritarian views:

- 30% of men
- 39% of women
- 29% of the "well-to-do"
- 42% of the poor
- 24% of the young
- 41% of elderly Russians
- < 30% of college-graduates
- nearly 40% of people who are uneducated
 
53%  of respondents were satisfied with having Putin as Russia's senior government official.

Some other measures include that:

- 62% respondents are "satisfied"
 - two-thirds expect Putin to promote policies he has discussed, with more than 50% expecting him to be  backed up by the same circle of advisors

Expectations for Putin 

According to the article, the survey shows the following percentages of respondents expecting Putin to focus on the issues listed (for each issue, the percentages listed are those expecting Putin to focus on that issue.):


- 59% economic revival
- 46% corruption
- 44% restoration of social fairness and betterment of living standards for average people
- 42% restoration of order
- 13% moral and spiritual revival
- 12% promotion of democracy, human rights and civil freedoms


Protests

In the survey, 26% expected protests to wind down.

23% expect a gradual improvement of Russia's situation due to those in power.

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Ruling party suffers more losses in mayoral elections

ITAR-TASS reported on April 3, 2012 that ruling party United Russia continues to lose mayoral elections, including a loss to a candidate put forward by coalitions of both "systemic" and "non-systemic" opposition parties.

In Yaroslavl, 250 km northeast of Moscow, coalition opposition candidate Yevgeny Urlashov beat United Russia's Yakov Yakushev ­ 69.65% to 27.78% in a run-off election on April 1.

Urlashov was backed by a combination of the Communist Party, A Just Russia, Yabloko, the Patriots of Russia, and former presidential candidate Mikhail Prokhorov.

Observers, including the Golos NGO, called the run-off election amazingly fair and transparent, even though controversy had been set off previously when election officials initially tried to block Urlashov from the run-off, despite his having led all candidates in the previous round of voting.

The opposition victory came despite the fact Yaroslavl had been ruled by the same mayor for two decades, who attempted to anoint his successor, the losing United Russia candidate, before then leaving town. United Russia figures tied to the Duma have been critical of Yaroslavl voters but indicated they would work with the new mayor.

The Yaroslavl election comes on the heels of an opposition mayoral victory in Togliatti, a center of the automotive industry. 

Meanwhile, in Astrakhan, A Just Russia candidate Oleg Shein won a first round of voting with a plurality, only to have election officials later declare that the United Russia candidate won a run-off by a 2 to 1 margin.  The opposition candidate cried foul and went on a hunger strike alleging election fraud, joined by 19 other hunger strikers.

While some past wins by challengers saw the challengers incorporated into United Russia itself, the latest events are seen as a sea change resulting from protest politics and the declining strength of United Russia:
Nikolai Petrov, of the Moscow Carnegie Center, has told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that before "any winner was always promptly incorporated into the ruling party and United Russia even celebrated such victories as its own." "Now the trend is going to be different. Urlashov has already said that he would not join United Russia. What makes Yaroslavl so remarkable is it saw an expansion of the model of protest voting. This is an indication that the slight growth in United Russia's rating lately was virtual, not real."  The Kremlin can no longer afford to back United Russia, and it is far more cautious, fearing a popular outcry. "Now one can hope that the election in Yaroslavl will serve as a precedent, and the case of the hunger-striking opposition in Astrakhan will be resolved in people's favor," says Petrov.

Political scientist Alexander Kynev is quoted by the daily Novyie Izvestia as saying the electoral potential of United Russia has been practically exhausted. "The ruling party is in an electoral impasse. It should revise its strategy in the radical way. There must be cooperation with the systemic opposition, with the non-systemic opposition and with civil society. Also it should drop its bellicose rhetoric. If United Russia fails to do that, its rating will continue to roll downhill."
click here to read more from ITAR-TASS

Presidential Draft Law on Civil Servant Spending Makes it to Duma

Kommersant reported on April 4, 2012, that a Russian presidential draft law on spending by civil servants made it to the Duma.

A core concept of the bill is that any civil servant making certain purchases like real estate, vehicles or stock must stay within the combined net income of the civil servant and their spouse for the past three years or, if exceeding that limit, explain where surplus income originated.

The information is to be reviewed by certain special commissions within government agencies.

While some Duma sources called Dmitry Medvedev's new mechanisms "adequate and effective" some outside analysts said income declarations would be more effective, and criticized the bill for leaving out luxury items such as gold or racehorses.

[no link to English translation available]


Wednesday, January 11, 2012

U.S. Senior Diplomat on Defense Cooperation with Georgia

Civil Georgia reports on comments on U.S.-Georgian relations by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, Philip H. Gordon at a Washington, D.C., press conference Jan. 9, 2012.

Said Gordon: "We have a security relationship with Georgia that has significantly been focused on education and training, and on Georgia's hugely important commitment to Afghanistan."

According to Gordon, "Georgia, on a per capita basis, is one of the most, either first or second, biggest contributors to Afghanistan."

"They have, even in recent days, taken casualties. And it underscores the risks that they are taking on our common behalf, protecting common security, and we will continue to work with Georgia on that basis," Gordon said.

Georgia reportedly has been pushing for U.S. anti-armor and anti-aircraft systems, concerned Russia might renew hostilities. Gordon indicated that Georgian arms purchases will continue to be reviewed on a case-by-case basis, with no change in the nature of U.S.-Georgian military ties regarding arms deals. 

Read More: http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=24340, Civil Georgia, Jan. 10, 2012

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Ruble Sweats Amid Russian Turmoil

The Wall Street Journal reports on political risk in Russia impacting trading in rubles. The currency has declined 3% since the biggest political protests over election fraud.

Previously in 2011 the ruble generally had performed well, apparently due to Russia being a commodity-producer (the world's second-largest crude oil exporter) as well as an emerging market.

However, Russia also had $80 billion in capital flight in 2011, more than double 2010, according to the Russian government, a situation aggravated by political uncertainty.

While Vladimir Putin is expected to win the March presidential election, concerns over political stability remain, and investors recall Russian currency devaluations in 1992 and 1996.

Said one portfolio manager, "It's never good when you have people in the streets ... That could lead to more capital flight."

Beyond the ruble, Russian financial markets are down, and the Central Bank is not offering much support for the ruble itself.

However, high oil price forecasts could help the ruble, and progress on eurozone problems could make investors less risk-averse.

Financial analysts differ on the impact of the March presidential election.

Among concerns voiced by one fund co-manager: "'one quite clearly is the political noise which is around us and quite clearly will remain elevated ... We worry about the fact that we've seen how these protests have grown in the Middle East and even in other areas.'"

Read more at:  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203436904577151081723038406.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Monday, January 9, 2012

Another Russian revolution? Not so fast; Ordinary people in Russia haven't been this politically active since 1991 but they're hoping for evolution rather than revolution


Natalia Antonova writes for The Guardian that Russian society has made a tremendous shift with mass opposition rallies on Dec. 10 and 24, rallies she argues are fueled by general discontent as well as election fraud.

While the Kremlin reassigned Vladislav Surkov, there are no plans to hold a re-vote of the Duma elections.

The opposition vows to fight on, even as Russia heads towards a March presidential election that Vladimir Putin is expected to win. The next rally is tentatively scheduled for Feb. 4.

The article predicts that Russia will not head down the path of revolution ...

Read more at http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jan/09/russian-revolution-not-so-fast

Internet Activism Increases in Russia: Moscow Rallies Underscore New Ability of Opposition to Raise Funds Widely for Anti-Kremlin Causes

Wall Street Journal Europe reports that social media have facilitated attendance and fundraising for Moscow opposition rallies.

In one instance, organizers raised four million rubles, about $129,000, through a Russian online-payment system after an appeal on facebook and other social media.

The funds were used to support a Dec. 24 event that became the country's largest antigovernment demonstration in two decades, leaving a surplus of a million rubles for a planned march in Moscow on Feb. 4.

Tens of thousands turned out to protest Putin rule and widespread election fraud in December Duma elections.

While Putin has rejected a revote, Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill has called for dialogue. Former finance minister Kudrin has called for the March presidential election to be under a new electoral law, and for election commission chairman Vladimir Churov to step down.

Wall Street Journal Europe: "Putin is expected to win the presidency, but some of his supporters fear the election will look illegitimate, even if it is run fairly, unless drastic action is taken to restore confidence."

Read more at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203899504577130242623440740.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Putin allies urge him to talk to opponents

The Washington Post reports that Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill has called Putin to engage in dialogue with opposition protesters, while former finance minister Alexei Kudrin has called for the head of Russia's election commission to resign before the March 2012 presidential election.

Kirill said in a televised interview that "If demonstrations ahead of the 1917 revolution had ended in the expression of peaceful protests and had not led to a bloody revolution and a fratricidal war, Russia would have had a more than 300 million population and would have challenged or maybe even surpassed the United States from the point of view of economic development. ... Back then, we failed to preserve the balance and wisdom. We destroyed our country. Why did it happen? Because people’s protests, often fair, are very skillfully exploited by power-seeking political forces."

Read more at: Linkhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/putin-allies-urge-him-to-talk-to-opponents/2012/01/07/gIQAS2GEhP_story.html