Ruling party suffers more losses in mayoral elections

ITAR-TASS reported on April 3, 2012 that ruling party United Russia continues to lose mayoral elections, including a loss to a candidate put forward by coalitions of both "systemic" and "non-systemic" opposition parties.

In Yaroslavl, 250 km northeast of Moscow, coalition opposition candidate Yevgeny Urlashov beat United Russia's Yakov Yakushev ­ 69.65% to 27.78% in a run-off election on April 1.

Urlashov was backed by a combination of the Communist Party, A Just Russia, Yabloko, the Patriots of Russia, and former presidential candidate Mikhail Prokhorov.

Observers, including the Golos NGO, called the run-off election amazingly fair and transparent, even though controversy had been set off previously when election officials initially tried to block Urlashov from the run-off, despite his having led all candidates in the previous round of voting.

The opposition victory came despite the fact Yaroslavl had been ruled by the same mayor for two decades, who attempted to anoint his successor, the losing United Russia candidate, before then leaving town. United Russia figures tied to the Duma have been critical of Yaroslavl voters but indicated they would work with the new mayor.

The Yaroslavl election comes on the heels of an opposition mayoral victory in Togliatti, a center of the automotive industry. 

Meanwhile, in Astrakhan, A Just Russia candidate Oleg Shein won a first round of voting with a plurality, only to have election officials later declare that the United Russia candidate won a run-off by a 2 to 1 margin.  The opposition candidate cried foul and went on a hunger strike alleging election fraud, joined by 19 other hunger strikers.

While some past wins by challengers saw the challengers incorporated into United Russia itself, the latest events are seen as a sea change resulting from protest politics and the declining strength of United Russia:

Nikolai Petrov, of the Moscow Carnegie Center, has told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that before "any winner was always promptly incorporated into the ruling party and United Russia even celebrated such victories as its own." "Now the trend is going to be different. Urlashov has already said that he would not join United Russia. What makes Yaroslavl so remarkable is it saw an expansion of the model of protest voting. This is an indication that the slight growth in United Russia's rating lately was virtual, not real."  The Kremlin can no longer afford to back United Russia, and it is far more cautious, fearing a popular outcry. "Now one can hope that the election in Yaroslavl will serve as a precedent, and the case of the hunger-striking opposition in Astrakhan will be resolved in people's favor," says Petrov.

Political scientist Alexander Kynev is quoted by the daily Novyie Izvestia as saying the electoral potential of United Russia has been practically exhausted. "The ruling party is in an electoral impasse. It should revise its strategy in the radical way. There must be cooperation with the systemic opposition, with the non-systemic opposition and with civil society. Also it should drop its bellicose rhetoric. If United Russia fails to do that, its rating will continue to roll downhill."

click here to read more from ITAR-TASS

Presidential Draft Law on Civil Servant Spending Makes it to Duma

Kommersant reported on April 4, 2012, that a Russian presidential draft law on spending by civil servants made it to the Duma.

A core concept of the bill is that any civil servant making certain purchases like real estate, vehicles or stock must stay within the combined net income of the civil servant and their spouse for the past three years or, if exceeding that limit, explain where surplus income originated.

The information is to be reviewed by certain special commissions within government agencies.

While some Duma sources called Dmitry Medvedev's new mechanisms "adequate and effective" some outside analysts said income declarations would be more effective, and criticized the bill for leaving out luxury items such as gold or racehorses.

[no link to English translation available]

U.S. Senior Diplomat on Defense Cooperation with Georgia

Civil Georgia reports on comments on U.S.-Georgian relations by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, Philip H. Gordon at a Washington, D.C., press conference Jan. 9, 2012.

Said Gordon: "We have a security relationship with Georgia that has significantly been focused on education and training, and on Georgia's hugely important commitment to Afghanistan."

According to Gordon, "Georgia, on a per capita basis, is one of the most, either first or second, biggest contributors to Afghanistan."

"They have, even in recent days, taken casualties. And it underscores the risks that they are taking on our common behalf, protecting common security, and we will continue to work with Georgia on that basis," Gordon said.

Georgia reportedly has been pushing for U.S. anti-armor and anti-aircraft systems, concerned Russia might renew hostilities. Gordon indicated that Georgian arms purchases will continue to be reviewed on a case-by-case basis, with no change in the nature of U.S.-Georgian military ties regarding arms deals. 

Read More: http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=24340, Civil Georgia, Jan. 10, 2012

Ruble Sweats Amid Russian Turmoil

The Wall Street Journal reports on political risk in Russia impacting trading in rubles. The currency has declined 3% since the biggest political protests over election fraud.

Previously in 2011 the ruble generally had performed well, apparently due to Russia being a commodity-producer (the world's second-largest crude oil exporter) as well as an emerging market.

However, Russia also had $80 billion in capital flight in 2011, more than double 2010, according to the Russian government, a situation aggravated by political uncertainty.

While Vladimir Putin is expected to win the March presidential election, concerns over political stability remain, and investors recall Russian currency devaluations in 1992 and 1996.

Said one portfolio manager, "It's never good when you have people in the streets ... That could lead to more capital flight."

Beyond the ruble, Russian financial markets are down, and the Central Bank is not offering much support for the ruble itself.

However, high oil price forecasts could help the ruble, and progress on eurozone problems could make investors less risk-averse.

Financial analysts differ on the impact of the March presidential election.

Among concerns voiced by one fund co-manager: "'one quite clearly is the political noise which is around us and quite clearly will remain elevated ... We worry about the fact that we've seen how these protests have grown in the Middle East and even in other areas.'"

Read more at:  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203436904577151081723038406.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Another Russian revolution? Not so fast; Ordinary people in Russia haven't been this politically active since 1991 but they're hoping for evolution rather than revolution

Natalia Antonova writes for The Guardian that Russian society has made a tremendous shift with mass opposition rallies on Dec. 10 and 24, rallies she argues are fueled by general discontent as well as election fraud.

While the Kremlin reassigned Vladislav Surkov, there are no plans to hold a re-vote of the Duma elections.

The opposition vows to fight on, even as Russia heads towards a March presidential election that Vladimir Putin is expected to win. The next rally is tentatively scheduled for Feb. 4.

The article predicts that Russia will not head down the path of revolution ...

Read more at http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jan/09/russian-revolution-not-so-fast

Internet Activism Increases in Russia: Moscow Rallies Underscore New Ability of Opposition to Raise Funds Widely for Anti-Kremlin Causes

Wall Street Journal Europe reports that social media have facilitated attendance and fundraising for Moscow opposition rallies.

In one instance, organizers raised four million rubles, about $129,000, through a Russian online-payment system after an appeal on facebook and other social media.

The funds were used to support a Dec. 24 event that became the country's largest antigovernment demonstration in two decades, leaving a surplus of a million rubles for a planned march in Moscow on Feb. 4.

Tens of thousands turned out to protest Putin rule and widespread election fraud in December Duma elections.

While Putin has rejected a revote, Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill has called for dialogue. Former finance minister Kudrin has called for the March presidential election to be under a new electoral law, and for election commission chairman Vladimir Churov to step down.

Wall Street Journal Europe: "Putin is expected to win the presidency, but some of his supporters fear the election will look illegitimate, even if it is run fairly, unless drastic action is taken to restore confidence."

Read more at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203899504577130242623440740.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Putin allies urge him to talk to opponents

The Washington Post reports that Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill has called Putin to engage in dialogue with opposition protesters, while former finance minister Alexei Kudrin has called for the head of Russia's election commission to resign before the March 2012 presidential election.

Kirill said in a televised interview that "If demonstrations ahead of the 1917 revolution had ended in the expression of peaceful protests and had not led to a bloody revolution and a fratricidal war, Russia would have had a more than 300 million population and would have challenged or maybe even surpassed the United States from the point of view of economic development. ... Back then, we failed to preserve the balance and wisdom. We destroyed our country. Why did it happen? Because people’s protests, often fair, are very skillfully exploited by power-seeking political forces."

Read more at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/putin-allies-urge-him-to-talk-to-opponents/2012/01/07/gIQAS2GEhP_story.html